Hi Douglas1 – if they can successfully overcome the language/translation barriers for their framework, yes, there is still plenty of room for growth. However, when the decline starts at home (U.S. market is 40% of their user base) it might be too late to recover and hold onto their $15B valuation.
One thing I totally agree with is the applications. I think that Facebook should have some guts and erase all the applications and then start making developers apply to be able to put applications onto the platform. The problem is that whether Facebook users want it or not Facebook is turning into a worldwide network and long gone is the time when you could post pictures from a party or have a bunch of silly apps on your profile and not have strangers see it. We’re entering a time when everything is a lot more transparent even if you are on a smaller niche network.
I will disagree with you though that Facebook is going to disappear I just think that it is going to be seen as a tool more than a fad. The problem with your assumption that niche sites are going to takeover is that you are assuming people join social networks to actually network or to meet new people. I totally disagree. Although SoberCircle is a good idea, for me personally I don’t really want to meet a ton of other people who like basketball or who own their own companies. I have enough to do without trying to validate myself by becoming online buddies with people I don’t know and I think that is why Facebook has had so much success. They realized that for the most part people wanted to be able to keep in touch with old friends and quickly show who they are to their new friends (who they met the old fashioned way). I think that is why so many people are adding it because it connects people everywhere independent of what you like, where you live, etc. And the groups allow those who want to meet people online to do so. Just my opinion though.
I don’t think people necessarily join social networks ‘to meet people’. What drives people to join and participate is 1) everyone else is doing it 2)the SN provides some utility or value for the user.
Facebook is great for keeping up with friends and organizing parties, but it doesn’t provide an environment that enables like-minded people to interact and network. A one-size-fits-all SN will never work and it’s just a matter of time FB users start to break away.
Another factor (I didn’t mention in the post) that will eat away at Facebook, is the growth of self-built social networks. For example, at Ning there are already 230,000 user-created SNs and the user base is growing at 1M people a day…
Hey Bob, good stuff, and the Celtics should handle Atlanta easily… and have no shortage of humans to at least keep THOSE results up to date!
Regarding microformats, I recently wrote a little microFormats introduction and simple step-by-step tutorial for virtually anyone to get their first “Web 3.0″ microformat page up in 7 minutes or less. Some folks might find it too simplistic, but I thought it was kind of cool do actually do this in a few minutes…
As per my recent rant about Facebook (which you were kind enough to read and comment on) I closed my account a few days back. Basically, I’d had enough. I’ve been trying to eliminate a lot of the clutter in my life and each and every time I logged on to Facebook – which was becoming more and more of a rarity – I was becoming increasingly annoyed, mostly with the neverending application requests.
However, I agree with Douglas that it’s going to get bigger and bigger. It’s unstoppable. In fact, I half-suspect Facebook might actually end up being a bigger threat to global harmony than Skynet.
I don’t expect my absence to make much of a different, but darn if it doesn’t feel gooood…
it’s not dying anytime soon, maybe after you retire that first email account thats been spammed to death and decide to let the account expire. As far as time goes, people will spend their time online as much as they want — share their info with as many as they want. Social networks allowing applications to be built ontop has attempted to allow the next stage of development to occur on their platform instead of leaving them in the dust for the next thing, cross-social-platform web-apps are just around the corner.. Like you have hotmail and I use yahoo, its just email, just social networks, just you and your interests connecting to others — I have some comments on facebook[link], but after using it for a while its really one of the simplest apps to share pictures, and doesn’t that say a 1000 words?
With search available as pay-as-you-go infrastructure starting at 35c per hour, anyone can build their own vertical and place advertising targeting the niche market they are are aiming for. http://www.searchblox.com/searchbloxami.html
Has anyone tried EQO for mobile VoIP? The app is free to download and you get free IM, free/cheap texts, and cheap long distance. Check it out – http://www.EQO.com
I agree totally, it is not very inspirational to see this UI guru has one of the worst sites on the web. Surely this allows thousands of developers and designers out there to create really shoddy sites, and disempower the site owner with a site that does nothing to enhance interactivity, usability, engagement and generate the trust and affection of users.
Our Pre-Launch site may not be the most usable in the world, but at least we care, and our clients begin to love our brand.
We are designing a Visual Interface to manage your Information and Networks: MIVUI.com, which stands for MyInfoMatrix Visual User Interface. We hope you guys keep an eye out and let us know your honest opinions… Launch early 2009.
I found a website that is similar:
Music portol to take with you on vacation.
Smooth music links from around the world.
Features smooth electronica – House, Trance, Smooth Jazz & New Age
[...] Jason Fried of 37 Signals Shares His Knowledge at Web 2.0 Expo NYC « CultureSlurp Good wisdom for Web 2.0 companies – all companies, actually. 37Signals.com's software is all excellent stuff. [...]
[...] while back I posted about a really badass online mixtape creator called Muxtape. Unfortunately, the site was quickly shut down by the RIAA (Recording Industry Association of [...]
You’re right, the fad will fade and for the reasons you give. I’ll add what has killed it for me over time. Two things: the more “friends” you add, the less you can say without wishing you didn’t or the less authentic you can be (most of these people aren’t really friends!); also most of the growth recently has been the older crowd and they’re loving it right now because they’re catching up with old friends – once they catch up with enough, it gets downright boring.
facebook is run by the biggest n rudest faggs in the world, n they don’t give a bloody shit about their customers. sorry to say that my account was disabled twice without any reason, n the only way for them to learn their lesson is to be overcome by another new social networking website. let’s just hope that happens. facebook is useful, but it doesn’t help when these faggs arbitrarily disables u for fun n never respond to emails–if they do, it’s the automated response, n their tone is extremely rude. like when they emailed me bak, if the biach was in front of me i woulda knocked every single one of his teeth out. no kidding.
Although I am indifferent about Facebook, I would have to agree with you. I believe that Facebook’s popularity will die soon. I give it about 1-2 more years. Because the internet is rapidly changing, I’m pretty sure that there will be some new website that will become the new Myspace/Facebook.
I mean look at Myspace. It peaked around 05-07 and now it’s not as popular. Sure there’s a lot users, but you recognize people around you not using myspace. Facebook became more popular around the late ‘07..early ‘08 and is currently still popular. But I feel that it is at its peak. That’s why I believe that Facebook will die within 1-2 years.
My personal favourite traffic estimation website is http://www.estimix.com . It seems to use the Alexa traffic information quite well and generates very accurate traffic information
Are you looking for some website/blog details? Here is a good website named WebStatsHQ.Com that can solve your problem.
Now getting comprehensive website details is just required a mouse click.
You just have to enter a website name at the search box at WebStatsHQ.Com, and click on Go,within minutes you will get full information details of that website.
I’ve seen Gary speak on several occasions and I do agree that he is more fueled by passion than logic but that’s what makes him so entertaining. Thanks for sharing this perspective.
LMBO this article was posted 2.5 yrs ago and fb is now the most visited website out there. actually i think its only cuz they made so many changes. in 2008 I thought for sure fb was gonna die soon
Although I agree with all of these points, facebook is just beginning to roll out into global markets and still has a lot of the world to conquer…
Hi Douglas1 – if they can successfully overcome the language/translation barriers for their framework, yes, there is still plenty of room for growth. However, when the decline starts at home (U.S. market is 40% of their user base) it might be too late to recover and hold onto their $15B valuation.
One thing I totally agree with is the applications. I think that Facebook should have some guts and erase all the applications and then start making developers apply to be able to put applications onto the platform. The problem is that whether Facebook users want it or not Facebook is turning into a worldwide network and long gone is the time when you could post pictures from a party or have a bunch of silly apps on your profile and not have strangers see it. We’re entering a time when everything is a lot more transparent even if you are on a smaller niche network.
I will disagree with you though that Facebook is going to disappear I just think that it is going to be seen as a tool more than a fad. The problem with your assumption that niche sites are going to takeover is that you are assuming people join social networks to actually network or to meet new people. I totally disagree. Although SoberCircle is a good idea, for me personally I don’t really want to meet a ton of other people who like basketball or who own their own companies. I have enough to do without trying to validate myself by becoming online buddies with people I don’t know and I think that is why Facebook has had so much success. They realized that for the most part people wanted to be able to keep in touch with old friends and quickly show who they are to their new friends (who they met the old fashioned way). I think that is why so many people are adding it because it connects people everywhere independent of what you like, where you live, etc. And the groups allow those who want to meet people online to do so. Just my opinion though.
I don’t think people necessarily join social networks ‘to meet people’. What drives people to join and participate is 1) everyone else is doing it 2)the SN provides some utility or value for the user.
Facebook is great for keeping up with friends and organizing parties, but it doesn’t provide an environment that enables like-minded people to interact and network. A one-size-fits-all SN will never work and it’s just a matter of time FB users start to break away.
Another factor (I didn’t mention in the post) that will eat away at Facebook, is the growth of self-built social networks. For example, at Ning there are already 230,000 user-created SNs and the user base is growing at 1M people a day…
Hey Bob, good stuff, and the Celtics should handle Atlanta easily… and have no shortage of humans to at least keep THOSE results up to date!
Regarding microformats, I recently wrote a little microFormats introduction and simple step-by-step tutorial for virtually anyone to get their first “Web 3.0″ microformat page up in 7 minutes or less. Some folks might find it too simplistic, but I thought it was kind of cool do actually do this in a few minutes…
Set up your own Microformat page tutorial:
http://charliebyrne.blogspot.com/2008/04/web-30-semantic-web-and-microformats.html
Web 3.0 Overview:
http://www.earlytorise.com/2008/04/08/etrs-7-minute-guide-to-web-30-the-coming-information-revolution.html
Thanks, – Charlie
Charlie, thanks for the comments and well done with the microformats tutorial!
Hi Bob
As per my recent rant about Facebook (which you were kind enough to read and comment on) I closed my account a few days back. Basically, I’d had enough. I’ve been trying to eliminate a lot of the clutter in my life and each and every time I logged on to Facebook – which was becoming more and more of a rarity – I was becoming increasingly annoyed, mostly with the neverending application requests.
However, I agree with Douglas that it’s going to get bigger and bigger. It’s unstoppable. In fact, I half-suspect Facebook might actually end up being a bigger threat to global harmony than Skynet.
I don’t expect my absence to make much of a different, but darn if it doesn’t feel gooood…
Cheers,
Sheamus
it’s not dying anytime soon, maybe after you retire that first email account thats been spammed to death and decide to let the account expire. As far as time goes, people will spend their time online as much as they want — share their info with as many as they want. Social networks allowing applications to be built ontop has attempted to allow the next stage of development to occur on their platform instead of leaving them in the dust for the next thing, cross-social-platform web-apps are just around the corner.. Like you have hotmail and I use yahoo, its just email, just social networks, just you and your interests connecting to others — I have some comments on facebook[link], but after using it for a while its really one of the simplest apps to share pictures, and doesn’t that say a 1000 words?
Excellent ideas, thanks for the tips!
~Cheers!
With search available as pay-as-you-go infrastructure starting at 35c per hour, anyone can build their own vertical and place advertising targeting the niche market they are are aiming for.
http://www.searchblox.com/searchbloxami.html
[...] Recap: Mobile 2.0 Europe (Cultureslurp) [...]
Has anyone tried EQO for mobile VoIP? The app is free to download and you get free IM, free/cheap texts, and cheap long distance. Check it out – http://www.EQO.com
well, certainly, there are big differences between Palo Alto and Barcelona…but talking about Europe, I think that is the more similar city.
and… http://www.festuc.com
And http://www.bloguzz.com
@jcarlosn
let´s hope so. who´s organizing the BCN version of this?… http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/07/14/foo-camp-2008-shangri-la-for-geeks/
@jordi
thanks for the tip!
@eduard
thanks for the tip!
You have a copy in a few days from Amazon and maybe faster if you email me your address directly!
cheers
Herve
Seems real interesting.
[...] Recap: Mobile 2.0 Europe (Cultureslurp) [...]
I agree totally, it is not very inspirational to see this UI guru has one of the worst sites on the web. Surely this allows thousands of developers and designers out there to create really shoddy sites, and disempower the site owner with a site that does nothing to enhance interactivity, usability, engagement and generate the trust and affection of users.
Our Pre-Launch site may not be the most usable in the world, but at least we care, and our clients begin to love our brand.
We are designing a Visual Interface to manage your Information and Networks: MIVUI.com, which stands for MyInfoMatrix Visual User Interface. We hope you guys keep an eye out and let us know your honest opinions… Launch early 2009.
BTW – Can you not hyperlink the results above, we are talking about usability after all…
I found a website that is similar:
Music portol to take with you on vacation.
Smooth music links from around the world.
Features smooth electronica – House, Trance, Smooth Jazz & New Age
http://www.themusiklounge.com
and…..
http://vlex.com
Best,
-Joan
Click on your link…looks like the RIAA shut these guys down.
This was a clever way of promoting and discovering (and buying) new music… I don´t understand how the RIAA would be threatened by this?!
The old geezers in the board room still don´t get it…
Hopefully soon it will be.
[...] Jason Fried of 37 Signals Shares His Knowledge at Web 2.0 Expo NYC « CultureSlurp Good wisdom for Web 2.0 companies – all companies, actually. 37Signals.com's software is all excellent stuff. [...]
[...] while back I posted about a really badass online mixtape creator called Muxtape. Unfortunately, the site was quickly shut down by the RIAA (Recording Industry Association of [...]
Hi Bob,
Thanks for the link in your post!
Hope you’re enjoying the private beta.
Saludos,
Dan
Thanks for writing this.
Great stuff indeed! Let’s catch up sometime soon..
You’re right, the fad will fade and for the reasons you give. I’ll add what has killed it for me over time. Two things: the more “friends” you add, the less you can say without wishing you didn’t or the less authentic you can be (most of these people aren’t really friends!); also most of the growth recently has been the older crowd and they’re loving it right now because they’re catching up with old friends – once they catch up with enough, it gets downright boring.
Looks like a nice tool, thanks for the heads up. Just wondering how accurate the results are, and if any different than Google Custom Search?
I guess it wasn’t meant to last. =/
facebook is run by the biggest n rudest faggs in the world, n they don’t give a bloody shit about their customers. sorry to say that my account was disabled twice without any reason, n the only way for them to learn their lesson is to be overcome by another new social networking website. let’s just hope that happens. facebook is useful, but it doesn’t help when these faggs arbitrarily disables u for fun n never respond to emails–if they do, it’s the automated response, n their tone is extremely rude. like when they emailed me bak, if the biach was in front of me i woulda knocked every single one of his teeth out. no kidding.
Although I am indifferent about Facebook, I would have to agree with you. I believe that Facebook’s popularity will die soon. I give it about 1-2 more years. Because the internet is rapidly changing, I’m pretty sure that there will be some new website that will become the new Myspace/Facebook.
I mean look at Myspace. It peaked around 05-07 and now it’s not as popular. Sure there’s a lot users, but you recognize people around you not using myspace. Facebook became more popular around the late ‘07..early ‘08 and is currently still popular. But I feel that it is at its peak. That’s why I believe that Facebook will die within 1-2 years.
My personal favourite traffic estimation website is http://www.estimix.com . It seems to use the Alexa traffic information quite well and generates very accurate traffic information
Are you looking for some website/blog details? Here is a good website named WebStatsHQ.Com that can solve your problem.
Now getting comprehensive website details is just required a mouse click.
You just have to enter a website name at the search box at WebStatsHQ.Com, and click on Go,within minutes you will get full information details of that website.
Thank you for your report on quarkbase. Please also take a look at cultureslurp’s report on webstats:
http://www.webstatshq.com/www.cultureslurp.com
I hope you’re right. I’m so tired of hearing about Facebook. I really wish someone would create a site that is more interesting and welcoming.
You gotta love his enthusiasm (saw him at sxsw) but maybe he is a bit overly optimistic sometimes.
Yep, very enthusiastic and seems like a great person. Just shedding some light on what seems to be missing from his message…
I’ve seen Gary speak on several occasions and I do agree that he is more fueled by passion than logic but that’s what makes him so entertaining. Thanks for sharing this perspective.
Hi,
There is a iPhone App in the works and will hopefully be ready before the summer is over
Thanks for the info, Magnus. Great work with this app. =)
Sorenson Squeeze 5.0 and Sorenson Video 3.3 Pro Codec for Mac
The next thing is aggregation sites like http://www.yipit.com. Maybe nice business idea to make for Europa…
I think you are right! I only hope that someone will invent something better than facebook!
[...] this will inspire some of the cookie-cutter slide decks we see too often in the business [...]
LMBO this article was posted 2.5 yrs ago and fb is now the most visited website out there. actually i think its only cuz they made so many changes. in 2008 I thought for sure fb was gonna die soon